While expected returns on video poker may seem complex to some players, they are based on a relatively simple set of principles. The term “expected return” generally refers to the long-term result of the player’s decisions. Determining expected returns can give players an idea of a video poker game’s payout percentage over the course of many rounds of play. In video poker, players must use the ratios listed on a game’s payout table to determine the expected returns of various hands. As such, correct strategy usually just consists of making decisions based on what hands provide the best expected returns.
How Expected Returns Work
Expected returns work differently on various forms of video poker. Because full play Jacks or Better is the most commonly played type of video poker, it may be helpful to use it as an example. In full play Jacks or Better, a player is paid 6 to 1 for a full house and 4 to 1 for a straight.
If a player draws 4 out of 5 needed cards for a flush, there are 9 cards out of the remaining 47 in the deck that could complete the hand. This is because there are 13 total cards in each suit, 4 of which the player already holds. Thus, the player’s chance of being paid out 6 to 1 is 9/47. To calculate the expected return for this situation, the player must multiply the pay ratio by the odds of winning. Because 6 times 9/47 equals approximately 1.15, the expected return for the player in this example is 115 per cent.
The player may have to decide what type of hand to pursue in some cases. For instance, if the player in the example above could sacrifice his or her chances at a flush to pursue an outside straight draw, he or she would need to calculate which option provides a higher expected return. In an outside straight draw, there are 8 cards out of the 47 remaining that can complete the hand. Using the payout for a straight, 4 to 1, the player can determine the expected return for this situation as well. Again, the payout ratio must be multiplied by the player’s odds of completing the hands, providing a result of approximately 0.68. This translates to an expected return of 68 per cent.
By calculating the expected returns of both options, the player in this example can discover that saving the cards necessary for a flush is a more statistically sound decision than holding the straight cards. Because each initial hand can be played 32 different ways, making decisions based on expected returns can greatly increase one’s chances of being profitable over the course of many hands.